http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/120 2026-04-04T12:05:59Z 2026-04-04T12:05:59Z WAHIB UR REHMAN, Reg # 39146 http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/306 2017-04-24T07:00:19Z 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z

Validity of Random Walk Hypothesis and Technical Analysis on Pakistan Stock Market WAHIB UR REHMAN, Reg # 39146 This study is conducted to check the random walk behavior and validity of technical analysis in Pakistan stock market. Random walk hypothesis is a popular theory which asserts that stock price follows random walk and due to this randomness prediction of stock prices is not possible. In this research three different forms of random walk are tested using different parametric and non-parametric statistical test. Data of daily historical stock index/price of KSE 100 index and selected sample of stocks for the sample period of Jan 2004 to Dec 2015 is used. Additionally, validity of popular technical indicators moving averages and MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) is tested using one sample t test and Welch t test for the same sample period. Results concludes that stock price follows nonrandom walk and technical analysis produces statistically significant positive return as compared to buy and hold strategy. Supervised by Dr. Bashir Ahmed

2017-01-01T00:00:00Z Perveen, Shahida Enroll # 02-297162-004 http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/8560 2019-04-22T05:52:06Z 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z

IMPACT OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF PAKISTAN STOCK EXCHANGE Perveen, Shahida Enroll # 02-297162-004 The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of fiscal and monetary policy actions on stock market performance along with the identification of moderating role of political stability in Pakistan. For the purpose of research, Govt, expenditure, tax revenue and budget deficit has been identified as measures of fiscal policy and interest rate and money supply as measures of monetary policy, and impact of both the policies on stock market performance has been analyzed by using robust econometric techniques on the time series data of Pakistan for the period 1981 to 2016. Multiple econometrics techniques have been employed using EVIEWS. Stationary analysis has been performed through Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. Confirmation of long run relationship has been done through Johansen co-integration analysis. The study has employed Flierarchical regression method to analyze the impact of fiscal and monetary policy measures on stock market capitalization given the moderating role of political stability. Ordinary least square method (OLS) of regression analysis has been employed to analyze the nature of relationship. Error correction model has been used for analyzing short run relationship. Causal relationship amongst variables has been tested through granger casualty test. The findings of research indicate the existence of long run relationship between both policies and stock market performance, while short run relationship exists only between monetary policy measures and stock market performance. Statistical findings also indicate that Government expenditures, budget deficit and money supply depict significant positive impact, while tax revenue and interest rate depict significant negative impact on stock market capitalization in the long run. Further, the estimation indicated that political stability moderates only the relationship between interest rate and stock market capitalization, while other relationships are not moderated by political stability. The presence of short run co-integration and causality has been found between monetary policy measures and stock market performance, but not between fiscal policy measures and stock market capitalization. The findings of the research imply that it would be prudent on part of policy makers to devise such policies which positively affect the stock market performance in Pakistan. The investors should draw inferences about the market efficiency with respect to government policies and adjust their investment decisions accordingly. The current study has contributed to the already existing literature by focusing on the unresolved research area in the context of Pakistan Supervised by Dr. Mustaghis ur Rehman

2017-01-01T00:00:00Z Zoaib, Zainab http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/8561 2019-04-22T06:38:00Z 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z

FACTORS AFFECTING STOCK PRICE VARIABILITY OF SUGAR SECTOR OF PAKISTAN Zoaib, Zainab Stock speculation is always a chancy scheme. Investors are hesitant to put in Stock Market. If investors come to make out concerning the accurate factors influence the stock price, they will spend in stocks self-assuredly. This thesis looked at the realistic relationship among the stock price and company’s fundamental factors of Karachi Stock Exchange. The intention of this study is to explore the factors that effect on share price variability of sugar sector of Pakistan. Panel analysis approach has been used in the study on ten companies of sugar sector of Karachi Stock Exchange over the period of time from Jan 2011 to Dec 2015, the scrutiny attempt to attain competent factor estimation as well as to authenticate the constancy of the association among stock price behavior and corporation fundamentals. Data information is examined via four methods: through descriptive statistics method, correlation analysis, regression analysis method and random and fixed effect model. To find out the research objective, fixed effect model and random effect model has been evaluated. The study has ROA (return on assets), ROE (return on equity), EPS (earning per share) and DPS (dividend per share) as explanatory variables and share prices as explained variable. Relationship among variables is determined by correlation; moreover the change in explained variable as a result of explanatory variables is explained by means of regression analysis. Outcome gives an idea about that 54.09% deviation in explained variable is explain through ROA, EPS and DPS. The study disclose that return on asset is negative and significant determinant of stock price in sugar sector at the same time as earning per share and dividend per share are positive and significant factors of stock price of sugar segment. The study reveals that in general the model is significant and additionally, a specification analysis is carry out to make a decision either a random effect or else fixed effect model is used and according to it random effect model is appropriate in sugar segment of Karachi Stock Exchange. Investors within Pakistan are required to make a decision about which stock be supposed to purchase. The outcomes of this paper provide instruction to the investors in stock selection. At the same time of taking decisions they must take into consideration about corporation information. The companies know how to put their policies as well as strategies by taking into account somewhat essential factors, meant for company continued existence and victory Supervised by Dr. Bashir Ahmed

2017-01-01T00:00:00Z Ali, Asad Reg # 22521 http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/8562 2019-04-22T06:40:56Z 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z

determinants affecting capital structure OF OIL AND GAS MARKETING COMPANIES IN PAKISTAN: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS Ali, Asad Reg # 22521 Purpose: The study examines how the Determinants are affecting the Capital Structure of Oil and Gas Marketing Companies listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) using annual financial data for calculating the ratios from 2006 to 2015. The dependent variable is Leverage Ratio (Debt to Equity Ratio) and the independent variables are Profitability Ratio, Firm Size, Firm Growth and Tangibility of Assets. Methodology: The Multiple Regression Analysis for the Panel Data has been done by using three models Pooled Ordinary Least Square Method, Fixed Effect Method & Random Effect Method. Hausman Test is applied to find the appropriate model for the analysis, which suggests that the Random Effect Model is appropriate and Correlation Matrix is applied to check the relationship. Findings: Results suggest that the Profitability Ratio and Tangibility of Asset have significant negative relation with the Leverage Ratio while the Firms Size & Firms Growth has significant positive relation with the Leverage Ratio of oil and gas marketing companies listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange. Conclusions: The current study analyses that the oil and gas marketing companies in Pakistan are highly profitable but their expansion decisions are based more on retained earnings rather analyzing the optimal capital structure for making new investment or expansion decisions. Recommendation: The study recommends that the oil and gas marketing companies should meet their financing requirements through debt rather than covering it with equity, it will reduce their cost of holding the equity expenses. The optimal capital structure will be achieved and the market pnce of the company will be maximum and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) minimum. Supervised by Muhammad Akbar Saeed

2017-01-01T00:00:00Z